IMHO we’ve hit bottom. There were a few major mistakes I made when I entered the crypto market. Although I focused on ALTs, I failed to realize: (1) crypto markets do not move in tandem to stock markets; (2) BTC’s major effect on ALTs due to its pairing to same; and (3) the insane amount of speculators, gamblers, day traders, and investors that had no idea of what they were investing in when it came to cryptos.

As a traditional stock market investor, I wrongly assumed that even though BTC had an insane 2017 run that since the stock market IMHO had 2-3 years of growth left due to funds flowing in from the tax cuts & repatriation of offshore profits that cryptos (and most importantly BTC) would most likely follow the same trajectory. These past weeks have demonstrated crypto markets operate entirely independent from stock markets.

IMHO this crypto crash has come to and/or is near its end. BTC tested going below $6,000 a few times but seemed to have found strong support & fought back from same. We have a lot of factors working in our favor that I think will lead to growth in the next 5 years that may well lead cryptos to outperform the stock market percentage-wise based on current positions.

First & foremost, the bad news is essentially over (other than Tether/Bitfinex’s possible collapse). We’ve hit so many hiccups in a short span that caused this crash including, but not limited to; (1) South Korean crypto ban rumors/FUD/panic being misreported by MSM; (2) India crypto ban rumors/FUD/panic being misreported by MSM; (3) collapse of Bitconnect crypto/exchange; (4) fraudulent ICOs (e.g. Prodeum); (5) banks banning crypto purchases through credit/debit cards due to their fraud models not taking into account the high risk of complete loss from same; (6) trusted veteran Wall Street investors spreading FUD/panic about crypto (e.g. Warren Buffet, James Dimon, etc); (7) China banning crypto mining & domestic/foreign crypto trading; (8) crypto investors being spooked by new tax, identity, and reporting/compliance requirements being mandated by government actors (e.g. South Korea, USA, etc.); & (9) speculation that Tether is a sham that will collapse both USDT/Bitfinex and quite possibly the entire market. Basically, everything that could have possibly gone wrong did so in a short span; however, IMHO the market for real cryptos is looking attractive & set to rise. There is not much news that is likely to happen now that can negatively impact crypto markets as a whole other than the collapse of Tether/Bitfinex, which IMHO is already priced in as any investor with a brain knows the risks posed by parking $ into Tether/Bitfinex.

Second, at these prices many BTC/crypto miners are below the break even point. They can't offload cryptos they mined into the markets like they typically do as same would cause them to operate at a loss & slowly go under. Even crypto prices remaining stable at this range will force many crypto miners out of business. This is a clear supply/demand benefit that will help to alleviate further downward pressure.

Third, IMHO it’s clear that cryptos have had their crash/correction that I envisioned happening alongside the stock market in 2-3 years; however, the stock market & many stocks have not had such a correction/crash & remain at ATHs. Now the MSM will focus their attention on the “stock market bubble” and spread more FUD/panic regarding same instead of cryptos. Do not underestimate how much the MSM hates Trump, so with Trump touting the stock market the MSM will def switch their “if it bleeds it leads” FUD/panic headlines over to the stock market bubble.

Fourth, while smart investment & institutional money will short the stock market at these ATHs, some of that $ (even if minimal) will flow into cryptos as an investment/hedge against stock losses. After this crash, cryptos seem more appealing for tangible gains in the short, medium, & long term. There’s a reason Lord Baron Rothschild said that “the time to buy is when there is blood in the streets.” It’s clear the crypto markets have been bloodied & represent an investment opportunity. Even if only a couple percent of the $$ in the stock market flows into true crypto investments (and not SHAM-COINS/SHIT-COINS) as a hedge against the stock market and/or as a true investment then that will increase the total crypto market cap to approximately $3 trillion.

Fifth, crypto is now being embraced (if not cautiously) by many of the world’s economic powers. Yes, China, South Korea, & India have currency reserve issues and need to stop the outflow of funds & money laundering from their nations; however, Japan, the US, and the EU/UK seem to be cautiously embracing and taking a “do no harm” approach to cryptos. It’s clear Japan, the US, & the EU/UK envision the crypto market/funding model becoming a NASDAQ 2.0. Japan has gone all in on crypto as it feels enormous regret/shame that it was left behind during the online/tech innovation boom of the 90s. Japan sees crypto as the future & won't make the same mistake twice. As we have seen from today’s US Senate hearing, the US sees real value/benefits in cryptos and will cautiously embrace/regulate same to ensure organic growth & protect investors. The US taking a “do no harm” approach to crypto markets is a big win (as the US could have effectively killed the crypto markets if it took an opposite stance). Moreover, the UK/EU has taken a similar approach to the US (as the UK/EU have no choice but to continually compete against NYC and Hong Kong to be the financial capitals of the world). IMHO Russia will never institute a wholesale ban on cryptos as Russia needs this tech to move funds due to US financial sanctions on Russia’s high net worth citizens, government officials, and to challenge the petrodollar. Furthermore, while China & South Korea have issues with money laundering, need cash reserves, & need to minimize cash outflows form the country, both China and South Korea will have no choice but to deal with the reality of the turning crypto tide. China will most likely institute heavy crypto regulations & embrace centralized cryptos, non-privacy cryptos, business enterprise focused cryptos, and/or cryptos that do not aim to replace fiat currency in a decentralized manner that its government cannot control.

Sixth, it’s clear inflation and a stalling of the US economy is a real threat in the not too distant future. IMHO the US will experience stagflation in the next 10 years. This will also make cryptos more appealing. The FED is caught in a Catch-22 when it comes to the US economy & inflation. The FED raised the benchmark interest rate multiple times last year & plans multiple increases to same this year. Nevertheless, the FED has already noticed an uptick in inflation that will only be compounded with the tax cuts & wage increases. Moreover, the FED is planning to clear its balance sheet from its Great Recession quantitative easing bond purchases at the same time the US Government is running an insane deficit that will need to be funded through bond sales. With both the US Government & FED pushing bond sales, the interest rates on same will have no choice but to increase to attract buyers. Moreover, wages are finally seeing the first real increase in decades from these tax cuts & that will only compound the inflation issues that are starting to ferment. Now if the US and global economy stalls, the US government & FED do not have many options left to combat same. Lending rates are still at relative historic lows, the federal deficit is insane, and the stomach to increase the deficit though fiscal stimulus may not be there. That leaves the very real likelihood that inflation may well creep up & creep up fast while the stock market slowly retreats making cryptos an attractive alternative investment to some.

Seventh, the decoupling of BTC from ALTs and the introduction of true fiats pairs into major crypto exchanges will do wonders in eliminating the ability of BTC to tank the entire crypto market in the future. There is no reason cryptos with their own blockchain (e.g. NEO, ETH, LTC, etc.) and/or built on a blockchain other than BTC should live or die based on BTC’s fortunes. This is on the horizon. Many exchanges have expressed a willingness to decouple ALTs from BTC, which would do wonders in allowing individual cryptos to sink or swim on their own merits. I don’t think this will tank BTC, but only allow for ALTs to operate independently of BTC’s fortunes.

Lastly, this crypto collapse was a great motivator to help reduce speculation, gambling, & illegal activities in the crypto markets. So many weak hands sold in a panic & most likely took a loss. Now those weak hands may have significant regrets due to this mini-recovery. If these weak hands do re-enter the crypto markets, they will have a stronger tolerance for the volatility & won’t be so easily induced into a fire sale. Moreover, day traders & gamblers that got burnt by the crypto swings/volatility will think twice about their strategy of risky short term gains/plays versus sound long term investing. This forces crypto investors to truly research & understand their picks and not just blindly back any crypto with a white paper & website. This will allow SHITCOINS/SHAMCOINS to die while $ flows into the handful of true promising cryptos. Moreover, with more government regulations/controls legitimizing crypto as a sound investment and eliminating massive crypto fraud/manipulation, institutional and investor $ will have more confidence to enter and/or re-enter the crypto markets.

In conclusion, I believe crypto markets are now in a position where investment into same is attractive and growth can happen organically (although we still have to deal with the Tether/Bitfinex issue). “I wish you good fortune in the (crypto) wars to come.”